College Football Weekend Preview: Lowest Point in Big Ten History

The Big Ten seemingly can't buy a victory over a team from a Power 5 conference and even the MAC is giving them trouble, which has caused the conference to hit a valley.

Back-to-back weeks of embarrassing losses may have caused the Big Ten to plummet to the lowest point of football competitiveness in its 118-year history.

In Week 2, three high-profile, nationally-televised losses—Michigan State to Oregon, Michigan to Notre Dame and Ohio State to Virginia Tech—allowed the country to see the ineptitude on display, but it didn't end there. A pair of losses to MAC schools added an exclamation point with Nothwestern losing to Northern Illinois and Purdue falling to Central Michigan.

Then in Week 3, the Big Ten couldn't buy a win over a Power 5 conference with losses including Iowa to Iowa State, Illinois to Washington, Minnesota to TCU, Maryland to West Virginia, Purdue to Notre Dame and yet another loss to a MAC opponent with Indiana succumbing to Bowling Green.

The incompency of the Big Ten hasn't come out of the blue. Ever since Ohio State's national championship in 2002, it's been a gradual decline for the conference for the better part of the last decade with poor non-conference and bowl game records providing the most-damning evidence.

The good news for the Big Ten is that they're still making hand over fist and the knowledge that there's probably nowhere to go but up from a competitive standpoint.

Credit commissioner Jim Delaney for helping to make the Big Ten the most lucrative conference in the country despite a poor on-field product, largely through the creation of a television network and the appropriate addition of Nebraska, defecting from the Big 12.

Gaining back respectiability on the football field won't come overnight, but barring a disaster of epic proportions, it probably can't get worse than it has the past two weeks.

As sad as it may be, simply beating inferior opponents at home will actually be a step forward, and it starts this week with Wisconsin hosting Bowling Green, Nebraska hosting Miami, Michigan hosting Utah, Penn State hosting UMass, Minnesota hosting San Jose State and Michigan State hosting Eastern Michigan. Big Ten teams should win games like these at a 95 percent clip, if not better.

Beating opponents in difficult road environments—particularly Iowa at Pittsburgh and Indiana at Missouri but also Maryland at Syracuse and Rutgers at Navy—won't be easy. But it's going to take wins like these to gain back even a fraction of respectability.

 

The Wisconsin Connection

Entering the season it appeared as if Bowling Green would be a formidable opponent for Wisconsin, having won a MAC conference championship last season and being the media's preseason pick to repeat as champs.

Following a surprising season-opening loss to Western Kentucky, the Falcons may have lost some of their luster. But given the events of the past two weeks, Wisconsin still can't afford to take Bowling Green lightly, especially coming off a win over a Big Ten opponent last Saturday, beating Indiana.

The Badgers were in a bad place after their own season-opening loss to LSU, although follow-up victory has quieted the critics, at least temporarily. Luckily for the Badgers and coach Gary Andersen, the schedule sets up well to go on a sustained winning streak and gain back confidence.

More than anything, the Badgers have to figure out their identity, both offensively and defensively.

Quarterback Tanner McEvoy bounced back impressively against Western Illinois from his horrendous outing against LSU, but the Badgers have to decide whether they're going to play to his strengths running a read-option attack.

And on defense, they have to figure out who to they're going to rely upon in the front seven as long as Warren Herring remains out.

There's no better time than now for the Badgers to figure out their identity with two more subpar non-conference opponents before they start in on their conference schedule.

After losing starting quarterback Matt Johnson for the season with a hip injury, it's going to be even more difficult for Bowling Green to mount an effective offensive attack, so they'll be relying heavily on all-conference running back Travis Greene.

Prediction: Through three games, the Bowling Green defense is allowing 569.3 yards and 36 points per game. Even if the Wisconsin offense isn't clicking on all cylinders, Melvin Gordon is still going to find ways to run his way through the Falcons defense. 45-10, On Wisconsin.

 

Where College GameDay Is At

ESPN's weekly pre-game show is originating from the campus of Florida State where the reigning national champions are hosting Clemson.

A similarly anticipated match-up occurred last season, both teams ranked in the Top 5, both undefeated. Clemson, however, did not live up to the hype. Florida State rolled to a 51-14 win.

Not much appears to have changed in the intervening year. Florida State is still the class of the class of the ACC and there's a canyon-sized difference between the Seminoles and the next-best team, whether that's the Tigers or someone else.

Attention this week is on suspended Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, who was ruled out of the first half of the upcoming game by the university after making obscene and vulgar comments in a public setting on campus.

Conceivably, Winson's suspension gives Clemson a better chance at pulling the upset, but with so much surrounding talent, even backup quarterback Sean Maguire should be able to move the football with efficiency. With receivers like Rashad Greene and Nick O'Leary to throw to and offensive linemen like Cameron Erving protecing Maguire, there's few excuses not to succeed.

After losing so much offensive talent to the NFL this year—like Sammy Watkins, Tajh Boyd, Martavis Byrant and Brandon Thomas—Clemson was expected to rely on its defensive front, led by end Vic Beasley, but so far they haven't been impressive in stopping the Georgia offense in a season-opening loss.

Don't be deceived by statistics such as total offense and defense, both of which Clemson currently ranks higher than Florida State. More telling statistics such as yards per play (YPP), are a more accurate gauge of success, and Clemson ranks outside the Top 100 on both offense and defense.

On offense, Florida State averages 6.5 YPP (28th in the nation), while Clemon averages just 3.6 (121st out of 128 FBS teams).

Meanwhile on defense, it may not appear as if the Florida State is anything special, allowing 5.1 yards per play (ranking 55th), but Clemson gives up an average of 6.8 (ranking 106th).

Prediction: It might not be a blowout on par with last season, but Florida State still wins with ease. 38-20, War Chant.

 

What Happened Before Saturday

Despite playing in the national championship game last season, it seemed like there was still a degree of hesitancy to fully buy-in to Auburn in 2014 as they reside in the steely-tough SEC West.

Some of those reservations were put to rest on Thursday night, as the Tigers went into Manhattan, Kan. to beat a ranked Kansas State team.

The running game wasn't working for Auburn and they didn't stop the Kanas State offense cold, but what Auburn did do is take advantage of three Wildcats turnovers and three missed field goals.

Auburn is getting a nice contribution from junior college transfter D'haquille Williams, who grabbed eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown on Thursday evening.

What Williams is doing is taking pressure off fellow wide receiver Ricardo Louis and making life easier for quarterback Nick Marshall, all of whom contributed positively to an Auburn victory.

By winning in a difficult road environment, Auburn is building more confidence in themselves and in the mind of the public that they'll be able to survive the challenges they'll face from the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi and Mississippi State in the SEC West.

 

Brian Carriveau is the author of the book "It's Just a Game: Big League Drama in Small Town America," and editor at Cheesehead TV and its "Pro Football Draft Preview." To contact Brian, email [email protected].

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Comments (1)

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Ualitore's picture

January 28, 2020 at 11:07 am

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