• Win One-on-Ones Outside When Cardinals Go Spread

It’s no secret how the Cardinals plan to try and win this game. You know it. I know it. Every football fan in America knows it. The best bet the Cardinals have is to spread the field with 3, 4 and even 5 receivers and go to work on the likes of Jarrett Bush, Brandon Underwood and Josh Bell. And that’s all well and good, but it puts the Cardinals in the position of having to protect the edge with their offensive tackles.

And this is a match up that favors the Packers.

Yes, the Cardinals will do whatever they can to ’stay ahead of the sticks’ as it were, putting themselves in 3rd and 3 or less as much as they can. But on the 3rd and longs the Packers do get them in, and when the Cardinals go to their spread formations, it will be up to Clay Matthews and Brad Jones to win against Cardinal tackles Levi Brown and Jeremy Bridges. In particular Jones, with what will no doubt be a concentration by the Cardinals to have the running back on Matthews’ side, will have to get to Kurt Warner.

Jones is more than capable – watch how well he does in the clip below at getting Browns’ hands off of him, cutting the corner and getting to the quarterback.

The completion is made, but it is far short of a first down on third and long. A win for both Jones and the defense.Yes, Kurt Warner and the Cardinal receiving corps (which more and more sounds like it won’t include Anquan Boldin) can expose the lack of depth on the back end of the Packers defense. It’s up to Jones and Matthews to make sure they don’t get the opportunity.

• Attack Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

And yes, I’d be saying this even if he was fully healthy.

Rodgers-Cromartie has been spoken of as one of the best young up-and-coming corners in the game. While I think he has truckloads of athletic ability, I don’t share most NFL observers opinions on the second year corner. And I’m pretty sure that Packers coach Mike McCarthy shares my view.

A lot was made of how the Packers attacked Rodgers-Cromartie’s replacement, Michael Adams. I’m here to tell you – they would have been throwing over there if Rodgers-Cromartie was in or not. Like I said, the kid has talent, but he’s not good at breaking down in space and making a tackle, which makes him very susceptible to the backside slants that Rodgers loves so much. The Packers quarterback will have plenty of opportunities as Rodgers-Cromartie is also not a fan of playing up in run support, meaning the quick bubble screens to Jennings, Driver and Nelson to the outside on the perimeter will be there as well.

Finally, you can bet the mortgage that you will see what happens here at the 2:50 mark at least once.

• Finley, Finley and More Finley

Leading up to the season-opening matchup with the Bears, the buzz building around second year tight end Jermichael Finley had gotten completely out of control (perhaps with a slight assist from your faithful blogger). The Sunday night matchup ended up being a complete washout for Finley due to the Packers’ inability to protect Aaron Rodgers for anything more than a three step drop (and even that was an adventure). This led to Finley being used as a blocker on the edge against Adewale Ogunleye. As most of you will remember, Finley used his new assignment to take out a bunch of frustration on the defensive end:

Of course, a lot has changed since opening weekend, most notably the return of Mark Tauscher to the starting right tackle position, the emergence of T.J. Lang, and the relegation of Alan Barbre to the bench. All these developments are positive and will enable Finley to do what he should have been doing in the opener.

Namely, dominating the suspect safeties of the Chicago Bears.

We saw it last week against the Ravens, we saw it three months ago against the Vikings and we’ll see it again this Sunday. To put it simply, the Bears don’t have a player on their roster, let alone in their defensive secondary, who can matchup against Finley. The only hope they would have in slowing him down would be to assign Lance Briggs to shadow him, which is unlikely to happen, unless Lovie Smith is looking to completely junk his favorite Tampa-2 coverage. Somehow, I don’t see that happening.

And Smith’s adherance to his beloved Tampa-2 will only open MORE avenues for Rodgers to get Finley the ball, as the Bears are presently using Hunter Hillenmyer at MLB, the position charged with running down the middle in coverage. I’ll take Finley cutting through the heart of the Bears’ Tampa-2 with Hillenmyer in coverage all day and, yes, twice on Sundays. And when they start to pack the middle? Easy – McCarthy splits him out wide:

Big game for Finley Sunday. Big. Game.

• Move the Defensive Line – Don’t Use Static Rushes
  

It’s common to hear about defensive line ‘twists’ and ’stunts’ – but this is usually noted when analyzing how teams us their defensive line when defending the pass. But line stunts and twists are common against the run as well and I think the Packers will utilize them to great effect against the Ravens and what I expect to be a pretty heavy dose of Rice, McGahee and McClain. The Packers would be well served to get B.J. Raji a season high number of snaps along with rookie Jarius Wynn. (I would, um, leave Michael Montgomery on the bench…) Along with numbers, Capers should use a liberal amount of line stunts and movement in general up front. Twists and stunts along with line slants one way while bringing Hawk and Barnett the other way. Create as much movement up front as possible – I think Raji and Jenkins in particular can do some damage if they can break free on the backside running plays down from behind as seen below by Raji against Dallas:

Of course, the line movement shouldn’t be limited to the running game. Look for Jolly and Jenkins on passing downs to work right to left to try and open up things up the middle for Barnett and company. The Steelers were successful with this a couple times against the Ravens last Sunday night.

Notice how the linemen don’t shoot gaps at the snap of the ball but simply engage and slide with the offensive line. This is the thing that Jenkins was complaining about earlier in the year. But it’s exactly what this defense calls for on occasion and you can tell the guys in the trenches have come on board at some point over the course of the last three weeks. I expect to see a lot of movement upfront on defense on Monday night from the front seven and the defensive line in particular.

• Short Passes Are As Good As Running

I don’t expect the Packers to have much success against Nagata, Gregg, Pryce and Edwards when it comes to the running game. Oh they may hit an off-tackle stretch play here and there and the counter-pitch could produce some yards. But overall I don’t see Wells, Collegde and Sitton working the same magic they did against the 49ers front.

But what I do see is an overly aggressive linebacking corps that can be taken advantage of with quick screens to the slot. We saw this a bunch against Dallas, as evidenced below:

Now I know that doesn’t look like much – but that’s a five yard gain. That’s a huge play on first down if only for the flexibility it gives McCarthy calling plays on 2nd and 3rd. Not only that, it serves as a replacement for the running game and can serve to keep the Ravens guessing when to send their backers, thereby opening up outside lanes for the actual running game.

Now, I know a lot of people automatically assume that because of the forecast, McCarthy will be forced to use the ground game. Not a chance. Jason Wilde pointed this out as well, but all one needs to do is go back to the Seattle playoff game or the game at Chicago last season to see that McCarthy won’t change his pass-first philosophy for no stinkin’ weather. Yes,the NFC Championship game might give one pause, but Rodgers looked a thousand times more comfortable in the cold last December than Favre did back in ‘07. McCarthy will have no hesitation using any and all pass plays in his playbook on Monday night.

• Finish

It’s simple really. Last week we saw a very lazy squad who didn’t seemingly take their opponent seriously. Ask anyone on the team and they’ll deny it – but play after play you saw guys in position to do their job…and fall flat. For a team that has more than its share of problems winning their one on one match ups, regardless of the opponent, they simply can’t afford not to finish, and finish with authority, when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the biggest problems facing the defense has been getting a free man to the quarterback. We’ve seen time and time again that when Dom Capers chooses to stick with a four man rush, his guys simply can not win. Oh sure, rookie linebacker Clay Matthews has been a bit of a bright spot in this regard and has made a play or two in various pressure packages. And perhaps fellow rookie and first time starter Brad Jones will bring some elusiveness and explosiveness that has been sorely lacking from the left outside linebacker position throughout the year. But the fact remains that Capers will need to scheme guys free to get to Romo this Sunday and when they do finally get their opportunity, they simply have to close the deal. Unlike Mr. Barnett in the clip below:

Barnett simply has to make that play. Has to. Has to get his hand on the quarterback, has to get the guy on the ground. Has to, has to, has to.

And Barnett, who actually had a pretty good game, is far from the only offender here. Watch the rest of the play, specifically after the ball is caught. Can someone tell me what on God’s Green Earth Tramon Williams and Nick Collins are doing? Seriously? Williams almost STOPS for God’s sake.

Finish. The Packers have GOT to finish every single play on Sunday – or they don’t stand a chance.

• Bring the TE’s Back Into the Backfield

Back when Mike McCarthy first got the job as Head Coach of the Green Bay Packers, he was promptly handed a rookie 7th round pick and two of the worst street free agents imaginable to take over the starting guard positions for the recently departed Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle. Rather than leave the likes of Adrian Klemm and Will Whitaker as the only things standing between a blitzing defense and his starting quarterback, McCarthy came up with the up-until-then novel approach of motioning not just one but two tight ends into the backfield from a shotgun set.

And you know what? It worked.

Then, in 2007, with a maturing offensive line and a veteran quarterback able to get himself out of most trouble that instant pressure presented, McCarthy got away from it. Oh sure, you still saw Donald Lee motion inside at the behest of the quarterback – examples abound in the 07 season, all the way up to the Championship game. But both tight ends in the backfield? On a passing down? Gone.

Then, at the beginning of the 2008 campaign, with a new signal caller taking over the reins and in charge of making the protection calls for the first time, McCarthy brought it back, albeit in limited doses. But it was definitely there – in fact, one of the best examples from last season is from the game against…the Cowboys. Take a look.

Fast forward to this season – and the look above has all but disappeared. Once again, you see Lee, Finley or Havner motioning into the backfield at Rodgers’ behest on passing downs from a shotgun set, but only ever one at a time.

Well, it’s time for McCarthy to bring back the two tight end shotgun backfield in full force.

If we’ve learned anything this season it’s that this offensive line simply can not hold up over the course of a full 60 minutes of football. Sure, they may have nice stretches here and there – but sooner or later, the dam is going to break and all hell breaks loose in the Packers backfield. With both tight ends back there, sure there are fewer guys out in the route, and sure defenses will simply start to play coverage when they see that look (in fact, we saw some of that in the Cowboy game shown above) but getting them back there would certainly solve a lot of the issues that have plagued McCarthy’s protection schemes this year.

The other thing having them back there would do? Settle down the quarterback. Watch Rodgers in the clip above. Watch how he gets the ball out in perfect rhythm. Watch how he makes his read and decisively makes his throw without hesitation. In that one play, he’s doing all the things he’s NOT doing this year – or at least doing less and less of as the year goes on.

McCarthy has been a stubborn son of a bitch up until this point regarding leaving his offensive line to fend for itself. Yes, he’s had his backs and tight ends ‘chipping’, but not nearly enough and rarely in obvious passing downs. If the Packers are to survive not only the Cowboy’s pass rush, but the bevy of pressure that is coming on their schedule from the likes of the 49ers, Ravens and Steelers, McCarthy has to swallow his pride and get this protection problem solved once and for all.

It starts with getting his tight ends back into the backfield – full time if needs be.

So yes between work, family and the firing heard around the Blogosphere, I am way behind. But fear not – the oldest has a sleepover and the wife is going out for drinks once we get the other two down for bed tonight. This means that yours truly will have time to focus, cut some video, and give you your weekly installments of Cheesehead TV Matchup.