Burnett's Future With Packers Is Uncertain

Green Bay Packers safety Morgan Burnett enters his eighth season with the team in 2017.  After missing most of his rookie season in 2010, he has appeared in no fewer than 11 games in every season since.

When Burnett was drafted in the third round, the Packers already had Nick Collins as an established veteran along with Atari Bigby, Derrick Martin and Aaron Rouse.  They needed Collins' running mate and a guy who could get down and dirty in the box.  

Burnett and Collins were penciled in as the long-term duo and answer at safety with Burnett the understudy.  Collins suffered a career-ending neck injury early in 2011 and suddenly, Burnett became a key piece on the back end of the defense.  A hand injury mid-season forced Burnett to play wearing a club cast which hampered his ability to be as effective in coverage.  Burnett still turned in one of his best seasons to date, posting three interceptions, two forced fumbles and 11 passes defended.  That came on a defense that gave up more yards than any other that season.

Over the next few years, Burnett established himself as a solid member of the defense and one of the leaders on the field.  In 2013, the Packers rewarded Burnett with an extension which in 2017 will pay him just under $7 million.  He becomes a free agent after this season.

Over the last three years, the safety position has changed in the NFL.  Teams have begun relying on their defensive backs, mostly safeties, to man more of a linebacker role at times.  They're needing more speed and athleticism in the middle of the field to keep up with the growing number of skill players and offenses that heavily favor the pass.  

The Packers began to embrace this trend last season and tapped Burnett to play that role along with Micah Hyde.  Burnett's ability to assist in run support along with his IQ made him a good choice.  He turned in a career high three sacks and two interceptions along with over 90 tackles.

The Packers' need to solve the issue they seem to keep having with covering the middle of the field is another reason they needed Burnett to embrace this role.  Burnett will surely be asked to spend more time inside this season too and his ability to be productive in that space is going to play a huge role in whether he's back with the Packers.

The Packers just drafted Josh Jones in the second round of this year's draft.  Jones is listed at 6'2" and 220 lbs while Burnett lists at 6'1" and 209 lbs.  Jones has a bit more size for that hybrid-type role he's likely to work his way into.  A second round pick is a high investment and so it appears as though Burnett faces an uphill battle to get another contract in Green Bay.  Jones is going to get plenty of chances to integrate himself into the defense and become the future next to Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who just had his fifth year option exercised by the Packers.

Burnett is 28 and will turn 29 by the time 2018 starts.  I mentioned his current contract and with viable years left in him, it's likely that some team around the league will pay a good amount for a veteran starting safety.  Hyde is one example of current market value for safeties.  He's three years younger than Burnett and was signed by the Buffalo Bills to a five year, $30 million contract.  Burnett may not fetch quite that much but he's likely to get some healthy offers.

The Packers have established the strategy of allowing some of their aging veterans to leave instead of having to pay market value and then be stuck having to watch those players decline during the life of the deal.  At face value, Burnett seems to fit that description.  

But a look at the current depth chart shows Kentrell Bryce, Marwin Evans, Jermaine Whitehead and Aaron Taylor.  Bryce saw time in 2016 and will get opportunities in 2017 as well but what he'll become is still unknown.  The others are depth and special teams bodies right now.  

This is one reason that Burnett may be a rare re-signing at his age.  The Packers need to add another capable safety or two before they can realistically afford to let him go.  The team may try to get a shorter-term deal to keep Burnett but that would probably require him to want to return to Green Bay versus testing the market for a more lucrative deal.  At his age, it's more likely he would want to capitalize on a last opportunity to get a long-term contract.  

The Burnett situation will become more apparent as the 2017 season wears on and we see what he has left and what Jones can do.  

With Hyde, there was quite a bit of debate as to whether the Packers would bring him back.  His unique role and football intelligence seemed to be more of something the Packers would have wanted to keep than not.  Reports were, however, that the Packers didn't make Hyde an offer during the early parts of free agency.  Perhaps they didn't foresee a team offering Hyde the type of money that he got in Buffalo and hoped he would return on a team-friendly deal.

Burnett has more to offer than Hyde did in terms of athleticism, size and overall ability.  It's not a good direct comparison but it's worth wondering how much value the Packers place on their depth at safety.  Chances are that they'll start to see Burnett as depth or a sub package player and hope that Jones quickly matures.  They may set their price and let Burnett take it or look for more elsewhere.

Come next offseason, Burnett could become one of the bigger free agent question marks the Packers will be navigating.

 

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Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts.  You can follow him on Twitter here

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Comments (37)

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NickPerry's picture

May 19, 2017 at 06:29 am

I like Brice, I like his speed and I love the way he hits. But Brice needs to show a hell of a lot more before he can step in and fill Burnett's shoes as a starting safety in the NFL. Josh Jones is a rookie and as excited as I am about this kid, he's still unproven at the NFL level too.

No matter what happens with Burnett I hope the Packers are 100% sure either Brice or Jones could step in AND the Packers don't take a step back at the Safety position. It seemed to take forever to get it right again after Collins was injured, and right now it seems they really have it right. With all the other contracts the Packers have to make decisions on after this year ( Adams, Lindsey, Taylor) Burnett would be more of a luxury I'm afraid.

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croatpackfan's picture

May 19, 2017 at 08:42 am

Nick, I agree with you. I do not think Josh Jones was signed because of Morgan Burnett. I think it is added value, if Morgan Burnett will leave Packers.
It looks logical to have both on the field - Morgan and Josh interchanging in ILB / Slot CB / S role with idea to confuse opponent. But, I'm not that good in football tactics, so this is just how it looks like to me. Maybe it have some sense...
Also, I think Morgan requires his colleague safety to be able to play on high level. When that is missing, Morgans values fade away. We learned that from 2011, 2012 and at the beginning of 2013 season.

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BPEARSON21's picture

May 19, 2017 at 09:46 am

I agree with you Nick Perry. I think it will not only come down to how Burnett performs this year but how Josh Jones plays.

That being said I think all of us can agree our safety play, at this point is one of if not our top strength on our defense so I don't love the idea of breaking that up. I would like to see Burnett come back. He's our leading tackler and fits Capers scheme well with the ability to drop into coverage or creep up into the box.

We can't afford to over pay as you mentioned with our other FA to be, but at the right price I think he is extremely valuable along side HHCD. I would love to see him back.

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Finwiz's picture

May 19, 2017 at 09:57 am

Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix is a strength, but Burnett is very average.
Overall I'm not sure you would call it a strength of the team, just the defensive unit that's the least deficient in performance.
I certainly wouldn't point to the safety group and say you could stand pat, and make no changes. Drafting of Josh Jones so high clearly illustrates the Packers don't believe they are where they want to be either.

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BPEARSON21's picture

May 19, 2017 at 11:19 am

Finwiz, I agree with you as well. Our safeties looks great because of how poor our CB's played last season. Even though HHCD is clearly carrying the load from a safety standpoint, I don't think that's necessarily a knock on Burnett.

Just like any other position if you have a clear cut #1 you can "mask" other players deficiencies. However, if Josh Jones plays well enough to where we feel comfortable with him starting along side HHCD, his rookie contract would obviously be more team friendly than Burnetts new hypothetical contract.

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TheVOR's picture

May 19, 2017 at 12:18 pm

He won't be back, money is too big, and the performance while adequate, isn't astounding. The next contract at safety is going to Ha2 DIX.

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Finwiz's picture

May 19, 2017 at 12:28 pm

Oh gosh no, around here he's Willie Wood, Leroy Butler, and Nick Collins all wrapped up in one body! LOL Don't try to be >reasonable<, VOR, it will get you nowhere.

All kidding aside, I agree, TheVOR.

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RCPackerFan's picture

May 19, 2017 at 06:48 am

This very well could be Burnett's last year wearing the Green and Gold.
With them drafting Jones in the 2nd round, and Kentrell Brice possibly taking a step in year 2, they could decide that next year those 2 guys bring more then what Burnett can.

For this year though I do really like our Safety position a lot. With Burnett and Jones able to play the Hybrid ILB/S position they provide a lot of versatility. Also Burnett brings a veteran leadership that is key to the defense. With Clinton-Dix playing at a pro bowl level it allows Burnett and Jones to be able to be more flexible in what they do.
Brice last year really was impressive. They haven't had a hard hitting safety like him in a long time. I'm really looking forward to seeing how he looks in year 2.

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Handsback's picture

May 19, 2017 at 07:42 am

As previously mentioned, replacing a safety isn't an easy thing to do. Before Green Bay allows Burnett leave, they need to remember how long it took to replace Nick Collins.

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Rossonero's picture

May 19, 2017 at 08:02 am

3 reasons Burnett could be back:
1. athleticism - physical and fast. One of PFF's top rated safeties vs. the run.

2. positional flexibility - can play safety or ILB. Can blitz, cover and play deep. Veteran presence.

3. Safeties can play well into their 30s - Ted signed Charles Woodson when he was 29 going on 30. He went on to play terrific for us for the next 6 years.

We saw a lot of two high safety looks last year because we just didn't have the speed or talent at CB to cover anyone. That hamstrung what we could do on defense.

The reality is positions themselves are changing. Merely listing someone as a safety is simply misleading. I wonder if we are moving toward a team one day trying "total football."

In European soccer, Total Football is a tactical theory in which any outfield player can take over the role of any other player in a team. It was made famous by the Netherlands national team in the 1974 World Cup.

Wikipedia: "In Total Football, a player who moves out of his position is replaced by another from his team, thus retaining the team's intended organisational structure. In this fluid system, no outfield player is fixed in a predetermined role; anyone can successively play as an attacker, a midfielder and a defender. The only player who must stay in a specified position is the goalkeeper."

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CheesyTex's picture

May 19, 2017 at 09:01 am

While I really like Burnett as a player and a Packer, he just does not bring the level of talent and leadership that Woodson did. Continuity is important, but 31st in defense also speaks loudly.

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Rossonero's picture

May 19, 2017 at 10:01 am

I'm not saying he's as good as Woodson, my point was that safeties can play well into their 30s. Also, how is a 31st ranked passing defense his fault? We had no CBs to speak of.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 19, 2017 at 11:01 am

I agree. I don't think age is more than a minor factor that can be handled by prudent contract structure.

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Since&#039;61's picture

May 19, 2017 at 02:36 pm

I would prefer for the Packers to keep Burnett beyond this season based on his experience and the fact that he has been a reliable player. However, money will be the key factor as usual. I also prefer to take one season at a time. Let's get the 2017 roster set before we start worrying about 2018. Hopefully Burnett's upcoming contract situation drives him to have his best season ever. Then we'll take care of 2018 when it gets here. Thanks, Since '61

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croatpackfan's picture

May 19, 2017 at 08:43 am

Wise advice... I agree!

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Turophile's picture

May 19, 2017 at 09:01 am

Agree with everything you say, Since '61 (I'm only Since '88, and I'm the other side of the Atlantic as well). In addition to the points Rossonero made, I'll add that looking at Josh Jones, the likely heir apparent to Burnett, he sure doesn't LOOK like he is 220. He seems to be a little skinny, especially in the lower body.

I'd like to see him have a little time in the strength and conditioning program before he starts seeing big chunks of playing time, as much for his own benefit as anyone else. A sturdier body should help him avoid injury, (especially as he is known as a fierce hitter), and a bit more muscle lower down should help support and protect those knees and ankles.

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Since&#039;61's picture

May 19, 2017 at 10:15 am

Turophile - appreciate your feedback and I enjoy reading your comments which are often spot on. As for Jones and his size/weight, looks can be deceiving. I think that if we could see Jones and Burnett standing next to each other we would see the difference between them. My experience is that the NFL and the teams are usually accurate with the height/weight information they provide to the league and the public. If anything, player's weight is listed lower rather than higher. For example, Lacy was often listed at 250 when he looked to be 260 or 265. Raji was listed at 320 IIRC and he appeared to be about 350. And there are other examples we could get into. Jones is taller than Burnett, so that may contribute to his leaner appearance. If Jones is on the lighter side of 220 I would guess he might be 217/218 but not much less than that. It's too soon to tell about any of our rookies but I think that Jones will be fine. I'm looking forward to seeing him on the field in a regular season game. Thanks, Since '61

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Finwiz's picture

May 19, 2017 at 09:16 am

I think Burnett is a good player - not very good, and certainly not pro bowl level. He lacks big play ability and isn't a difference maker. Plus he gets injured a lot, but who doesn't these days. I say it's highly plausible they view Josh Jones as the "heir apparent" with Burnett's looming contract in mind. I hope to God Jones can be better than Burnett, because we sure need an impact player at the safety position, someone like Nick Collins.
Burnett isn't even close to Nick Collins.

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TXCHEESE's picture

May 19, 2017 at 09:44 am

Barring a drop off in his performance, I think they'll make a solid effort to re-sign Burnett, simply due to the good possibility, that 3 safeties will be on the field a lot this year. After the top 4, right now, there is a considerable drop off in talent.

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Finwiz's picture

May 19, 2017 at 12:33 pm

And let's not forget - the IDIOT LAID DOWN in the middle of the field, with no player within 15 yards of him, in the final 3 minutes of an NFC championship game, with nothing but open field in front of him, because somebody else even dumber than him told him to do so. No killer instincts. He could have guaranteed a win in that game and been a hero, instead he was just another one of the 3 total goats that will always be remembered from that game. No football instincts at all. Not an instinctive player, and not a play maker. The fact that he "LAID DOWN" when he had a chance to be a hero, just proves he doesn't have the mentality to make big plays and try to be a star. It's not in his makeup. Just an average, serviceable player, nothing special.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

May 19, 2017 at 10:06 am

Burnett's a fine player, but he's gone. He was gone before we drafted Jones. He's even more gone now.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 19, 2017 at 11:20 am

I think Jones complements Burnett nicely. I think Burnett has 3 to 5 solid years left, so my belief is that Burnett is only gone if both Jones and Brice play very well. I'd guess Burnett will command 4 yrs, $35M with $14M guaranteed.

I suspect I am in a minority here, but I view Jones as a potentially viable replacement for both Dix and Burnett. Yeah, I know, I just don't think HaHa is nearly as good as most seem to, not even close to Earl Thomas.

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Finwiz's picture

May 19, 2017 at 11:26 am

Yeah I disagree with you, Clinton-Dix is a very good player, that could still be ascending, a pretty big contrast from what you have with Burnett. I'm pretty sure they aren't going to part with Clinton-Dix, and odds are he will get another contract with the Packers. He's not Earl Thomas, but guess what Earl Thomas may never be the same after that injury last year.
There is no way in hell I would give Burnett $14M in guaranteed money. They're crazy if they do that. You give play makers that kind of money, and he ain't it. Jones is a replacement for Burnett, because the other thing that Jones has that Burnett doesn't, besides his other limitations, is speed. They need to upgrade their defensive speed, and Jones is a good step in that direction.

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cuervo's picture

May 19, 2017 at 11:47 am

There is no way TT will pay a player of Burnett's age and ability 35 mio and 14 mio guaranteed......Buffalo might, but thank god we won't.

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Rossonero's picture

May 19, 2017 at 11:54 am

As always it'll depend on...our salary cap, Burnett's demands, the market value for safeties, his performance in 2017, his whole body of work, etc.

Linsley, Adams and Taylor are a much more manageable class of FAs to sign than this past free agency period. House, Jahri Evans and Jeff Janis should be affordable to keep, depending on how they play.

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Finwiz's picture

May 19, 2017 at 12:45 pm

Not only do I think the Packers should never consider giving Burnett a long term contract, I would also say he's the number one guy I'd like to see gone from this defense, and that includes Randall and Rollins. There's still a possibility those two were hurt last year and could bounce back. Morgan on the other hand can never acquire the instinct or intelligence to dismantle the image and stigma of his "mid field lay-down" in the NFC championship game. It's like a permanent scar in the memory banks that can never be erased.

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worztik's picture

May 19, 2017 at 01:56 pm

Fin... you obviously watched the game so how did you miss Peppers telling him to "get down"? If Julius tells a player to do something, 97.5% would do it... just sayin'...

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Finwiz's picture

May 19, 2017 at 02:06 pm

Worz - instinct should have taken over and said, 'this guys nuts, I'm scoring'!
Terrell Buckley wouldn't have laid down - for all his obvious faults, at least he had balls to try and make a play.

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worztik's picture

May 19, 2017 at 03:06 pm

Good point fiiz!!!

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Since&#039;61's picture

May 19, 2017 at 03:13 pm

Fin - that situation in the NFCG @ Seattle was not a matter of instinct it was a matter of situational football. Burnett had the right idea but he executed badly. A long time ago I was coached as a DB that when you intercept the ball you break downfield and to the nearest sideline. Put the ball in the arm closest to the sideline so that you will likely fumble out of bounds and go as far as you can up the field or run out of bounds if you know you're going to be hit. To this day I'm not sure why Peppers told Burnett to get down. Apparently to prevent Burnett from fumbling if hit, but another 10-15 yards of field position probably wins the game for the Packers and maybe Burnett makes it to FG range or even all the way. Not to mention the extra time taken off the clock while he is still running. That was the third error in a horror of unforced errors for the Packers in that game. 1st error, 3rd and 19 in the 3rd qtr and Capers rushes 2 DLs giving Wilson enough time to convert resulting in the 2nd error, allowing a fake FG for a TD. Then Burnett sits down on his pick. Then the shanked punt by already forgot his name and it was all downhill from there. Thanks, Since '61

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Finwiz's picture

May 19, 2017 at 03:52 pm

Not much I disagree with in that post Since '61, except I put 95% of the blame on 3-4 players, and only 5% on the coaches.
Specific players I mentioned in previous posts, so I won't be redundant.
That loss was worse than the Denver Super Bowl or the 4th & 26, even worse than the loss to the Giants at Lambeau when Favre threw it away.
They NEVER should have lost that game against Seattle.
It was won - except for 3-4 players playing tight, cautious, and stupidly.
& One guy with lack of heart/grit.

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Since&#039;61's picture

May 19, 2017 at 08:50 pm

Fin - we agree. No way do you blow a 12 point lead with less than 4 minutes to play in a championship game unless you help out the other team which some of the Packer players did. One bad/stupid play after another. Tough to take when you beat yourself. Thanks, Since '61

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worztik's picture

May 19, 2017 at 01:53 pm

Lots of negative comments here regarding our safeties. I don't see them as a detriment to the team but, an asset. If we had great 1st round LBs, as many teams do, we would feel very differently about both Morgan and HaHa... IMO! I like them both and I hope we keep them both around... just sayin'!!!

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Lphill's picture

May 19, 2017 at 01:56 pm

If Brice and Jones show promise for the future they will probably offer Burnett a take it or leave it deal. If he turns it down then hello Vikings.

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TXCHEESE's picture

May 19, 2017 at 02:00 pm

Wow 'wiz, that was like 3 years ago. If I remember correctly, Dix misplayed a pop fly of a desperation pass on a 2 point conversion. That, along with an idiotic play on Seattle's fake field goal, and another idiotic ST play on an onside kick, had way more to do with that loss than Burnett's play after the int. He's pretty salty against the run, and knows where everyone is supposed to be. That kind of experience cannot be taken for granted.

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Finwiz's picture

May 19, 2017 at 02:07 pm

Yep - 3 players, with honorable mention to one, that are total goats in that game. The stupid 3rd string TE that jumped up to catch that on-side kick when Jordy was standing there to take it, the dope Burnett for laying down in the middle of the field, the mental midget Peppers for telling him to, and Matthews for standing on the sideline while Wilson ran the ball down our throats - because he was TIRED.

Ha-Ha was a rookie that year, and yes, did misplay an easy INT at the goal line. I give him a pass. 3 years ago - it feels like yesterday.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 20, 2017 at 12:09 am

I did not intend to dump on our safeties. I am open to the notion of re-signing Burnett at $8.5M AAV after all. Burnett's ability to play some ILB increases his value. I view Dix as a solid red chip player; my comment was just a little push back on the anointing going on in some comment sections. Dix may continue to ascend, but I think his measurables limit him from ever becoming an elite FS.

That said, I like Jones, Brice and Evans. Those 3 are making my roster in 2017. I am alive to the possibility that Burnett could be replaced by cheaper options in Brice or even Evans, and that Jones could replace Burnett or Dix.

I'd bet against Burnett being on the 2018 roster right now, but it is not due to age so much but to money ball - having cheaper alternatives in the talent pipeline.

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