Around the NFC North: Ranking the QBs
By Mike Price
NFC QB rankings have been going around Twitter over the past week or so. Assuming the Aaron Rodgers trade goes through, you could argue that at least the five best QBs in the league (Mahomes, Burrow, Rodgers, Herbert, Allen) are in the AFC with Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence right on the edge. It's a good situation for a team in transition like the Packers to be in. Jordan Love could conceivably be the best QB in the division by the end of the year. Pairing a strong special teams, a top-5 run game, and a good defense with Love could be enough to secure a playoff birth in his first season.
I don't think it makes sense to try to rank Love now, like I said, he could be the best QB in the division by the end of the season, but he could also be the clear worst. We just don't have enough evidence yet. We can put together a pretty good ranking of the other three QBs in the division.
Justin Fields
This will certainly be controversial. Fields had one of the worst passing grades in the NFL last season. He also had one of the worst o-lines and receiving corps; he was still able to put up electric rushing numbers and carry the offense for games at a time. Fields also wasn't a run-only QB in college, in fact, he was considered the best downfield passer in his class. The question, for me, is which of the three QBs would be my first choice to lead a team going forward, and I think the answer is obviously Justin Fields.
Of course, I could be ready to go back and delete this article by week 4 next season. The Bears have started to invest plenty in the offense. They traded for DJ Moore, a top-20 WR, added beef on the o-line, signed Bobby Tonyan, and have plenty of draft capital to use. If Claypool can be more than a body, the Bears may already have the tools to build an ideal offense for Fields. Center a spread attack around Fields running, get Mooney and Claypool open downfield a few times a game, and target DJ Moore a ton. If Fields reaches his potential, that's enough for a top-15 offense next season.
Kirk Cousins
Cousins and Goff are similar QBs. Both are reliant on a QB-friendly system that gets the ball to superior weapons. Both can run efficient regular season offenses but almost certainly would never win a Super Bowl. Both are incredibly immobile. Cousins is just clearly more efficient. Last year he was the seventh-highest-graded passer based on PFF grades. Since his first full-time season in 2015, Cousins has never scored below 70 in a season and is usually over 80. Goff has flirted with 70 every season and been below it twice.
Cousins can hit every wide receiver everywhere on the field, as long as the offense gets the receiver open and no one is watching. He struggles when he's forced to create and in big, nationally televised, games. He's the perfect QB to sell tickets and not tank, but you'll be stuck in QB purgatory with him.
Jared Goff
Goff is riding a high right now. He managed a top-5 offense last year and the coordinator of that offense is so excited about the team's prospects that he skipped head coach interviews to come back. The Lions pick 6th in the draft, and Goff supposedly played so well last year that they won't even bother targeting a QB. So why's he ranked last?
His total PFF grade was 20th among QBs last season and his passer grade was even lower. His advanced stats weren't much better. That means in a close-to-perfect situation (top-5 o-line, star #1 receiver, great rushing attack, creative coordinator) Goff was better than just 12 other starters in the league. How much better is he going to get? The Rams saw the writing on the wall, traded him to Detroit, and then won a Super Bowl the next season. Goff can pile up counting stats if he has good receivers and a good play-action-based attack, but, like Cousins, he's just not a game-changer and even Cousins has performed better in a similar situation.
Conclusion
There are two teams in the division that either are actively planning around their next QB or should be and two teams with young QBs waiting to see what they can do. You have to take on risk to stay out of purgatory in the NFL and if I had to pick, I'd rather be the team with an unknown at QB than the one with a known meh QB.
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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved form Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.
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Comments (31)
jont
March 20, 2023 at 04:45 pm
I think you might be a little harsh on Cousins, Mike. He's no star, but he does well enough. Would I take him over Love? No. Pretty emphatically 'no', but still, he's not bad. Better than Goff.
And I think you might be under estimating Love. True, he's still largely an unknown commodity, but the one thing we know is that he can throw. From what we've seen-- again, admittedly not much-- he looks like he has the best arm in the division.
And, of course, Love's all upside. Goff and Cousins are who they are; they are not going to improve. Fields? He has the tools but he made too many bad reads last season from what I saw. He's improving but I don't really believe Bears' fans should be too optimistic until they see him with a decent receiver or two.
Bitternotsour
March 20, 2023 at 05:20 pm
well. Goff has been to a super bowl. Won playoff games. He's mobile. Goff starts out as QB1 in the division if you're only ranking three.
Coldworld
March 20, 2023 at 05:14 pm
I Think the jury is squarely out until Fields shows he can actually play QB, not as primarily a runner or he shows a great deal more durability. The second game against us was by far his best passing game last season, and it wasn’t that good. Having better receivers will help to an extent, but he’s going to have to be a lot better to capitalize fully.
MilkCan44
March 20, 2023 at 05:52 pm
From training camp last year, reporters were saying that Rodgers was spot-on, and Love had some days of throwing behind receivers, throwing to covered ones, etc. Yet in the season, Rodgers had probably the worst accuracy of his career, both long and short, and there's largely optimism about Love with little proof. I hope last year's training camp is not indicative.
TKWorldWide
March 21, 2023 at 07:29 pm
The thumb?
TKWorldWide
March 21, 2023 at 07:29 pm
Or not?
Bearmeat
March 20, 2023 at 06:40 pm
Running QBs are like supernova stars. They look great, but they burn out fast. Fields is a RB who can throw at times, not a QB. He WILL get hurt and that will eventually remove his greatest weapon. Sure, the offense looks better at the skill positions, but the OL is a dumpster fire.
I'd take Love over fields right now because they're both unknowns. But Love, unlike Fields, can read a defense and has thrown with accuracy from a clean pocket. Again, unlike Fields.
TKWorldWide
March 21, 2023 at 07:32 pm
Lamar Jackson is finding that out right now.
LeotisHarris
March 21, 2023 at 07:59 pm
Wait just a minute! Are you the artist formerly known as TKstinator?
ricky
March 20, 2023 at 06:43 pm
This was going to happen sooner or later. Rodgers could well have a big year for the Jets. But, at this time of his career, he is only a short term answer. He's going to turn 40 this season, and he is also very set in his ways. And expensive. If the Packers had brought him back, and gotten rid of Love, the Packers would be joining the many teams desperately looking for a QB. At the least, give Love a chance (sounds like something from the '60's) and see what he can do. There will be a year on a lower contract, as the impact of the dead money for Rodgers is dealt with, and from there, the team can build around Love, working with his strengths, and giving him some weapons to help him succeed, much as Philly is doing with Hurts.
barutanseijin
March 20, 2023 at 07:39 pm
Tough to rank these guys. I suspect that Kirk’s age will begin to show and the regression of the rest of the Vikings will accelerate the process. The Lions & Goff will be about what they were last season: nothing special. Fields was awful as a passer last season. Maybe he’ll improve but usually guys who are as bad as he was don’t suddenly become great passers. What he did at The Ohio State U. doesn’t mean diddly. He’s a pro now and all that matters is how he handles the pro game. He also has a high likelihood of getting hurt & missing games. Who is the Bears backup QB?
Can Love rise faster than Fields? Will his upward trajectory carry him past an aging Kirk Cousins and beyond the mediocrity in Michigan? Should be interesting to see.
PhantomII
March 20, 2023 at 08:03 pm
Vikings purged a ton of talent. Lions and Bears will both be better. If we can get Love a couple rookie WR within RD 1-2 and a good TE or two I think we will be better than last season. Love will work within ML system and throw to ANY open receiver and actually go through progressions so that is a big plus. I hope Gute does right by him with receiving talent even though it will be young. The run game should still be there also to lean on for him. GPG
Leatherhead
March 20, 2023 at 08:16 pm
Goff has started in a. super Bowl
Cousins has won a playoff game
Fields has won regular season games.
Love has started one game.
That’s the ranking now. I’m positive it will look different next January..
Cousins is 34. I think we’ve seen his ceiling.. Fields is going to have to prove it. Goff….my gut feeling on him is that he’s an above average game manager….that’s his ceiling. I think Love brings a better package to the field than any of these guys.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 21, 2023 at 03:45 am
I find this to be a compelling argument.
Guam
March 21, 2023 at 08:24 am
Good analysis LH.
T7Steve
March 21, 2023 at 10:12 am
LH, I agree with your assessment. If MLF tries anything with Love beyond making him a game manager, it will stifle his growth too.
If Love gets the team around him, he'll be able to shine when he needs to.
I think we'll have the best O-line this season, maybe followed closely by the Lions. The Lions O-line is why Goff had a career re-build last season.
Leatherhead
March 21, 2023 at 01:53 pm
You don't have a good offense without blocking, and the Lions had a good offense last year. Our O-line may have cost us some early games, but once we had everybody back and in place and practicing together, we did pretty good.
We return the best defense in the division, Jones and Dillon, Watson, and a veteran offensive line. That's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
DoubleJ
March 21, 2023 at 11:00 am
I remember reading that in the 2020 draft Love was considered to have the highest ceiling of all the QBs in the draft but also a very low floor. If Love shows he has grown as a player and is able to read defenses quickly, he could be excellent.
BirdDogUni
March 20, 2023 at 08:59 pm
Traded AR to Jets for 13 & 43. Then I traded down from 13 and 15 to 27 and 28 gaining 2 second round picks.
27: Dalton Kincaid TE UTAH
28: Dawand Jones RT OHIO STATE
43: Darnell Washington TE GEORGIA
45: Jack Campbell ILBer IOWA
59: Andre Carter II OLBer ARMY
60: Sydney Brown Safety ILLINOIS
78: Eli Ricks CB ALABAMA
116: Moro Ojomo DT TEXAS
149: Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR WEST VIRGINIA
170: Matt Landers WR ARKANSAS
232: Eric Gray RB OKLAHOMA
235: Jake Andrews C TROY
242: Brandon Hill Safety PITTSBURGH
256: Tavius Robinson OLBer MISSISSIPPI
As much as I'd like to go all offense, it just isn't realistic. Jack Campbell can take D. Campbell's spot next year.
Andre Carter needs a year to get stronger, but should be a beast in '24 when we are really ready to make a run.
Adding Brown to the Safety Room was a no-brainer.
Eli Ricks - 6' 2" Alabama CB. STs good depth.
Ojomo could be a beast given the opportunity.
Two more big sub 4.4 WRs.
7th round depth and STs.
Gutey just needs to get the Jets to pony up 13 and 43.
Leatherhead
March 20, 2023 at 10:03 pm
I'm beginning to believe the the Lions of The East, the Jets, will find a way to screw this up. As a Jets fan said to me "We haven't made the playoffs in over 10 years....what's one more year?" That's his rational for not trading pick #13 for a guy who has a real good chance of getting you into the playoffs for the first time in over a decade.
If the deal isn't done by the draft, then every team in the league is saying "I could get Aaron Rodgers on my team, this year, in exchange for a pick next year." Which will probably be in the bottom half of the round.
It's only going to take one team to make a better offer than the Jets.
BirdDogUni
March 20, 2023 at 11:11 pm
What if there is already a deal in place, but they don't tell anyone until the Jets are on the clock?
Packers2020
March 21, 2023 at 09:19 am
BirdDog,
I like the optimism and I like the draft overall.
I just do not see the Jets giving up picks 13 and 43. I also do not see Gute trading back. It is not his style. His style is to trade up and try to get an impact player.
Maybe that will change due to building more around Love and not needing to win a SB this year but I am not sure it will.
If we happen to get the Jets 1st rounder, I could see us taking an OT and a WR. I could also see us taking an edge player again.
DoubleJ
March 21, 2023 at 11:07 am
Highly unlikely the Jets will give up their R1 & R2 this year. Personally I would rather see a trade for the Jets R1 next year and a conditional pick in 2025. The conditional would be a R3 if Rodgers plays in 2024, R2 if they make the playoffs with Rodgers in 2024, and a R1 if the Jets make the Super Bowl in 2023 or 2024.
I can understand the desire to trade down from 15. Overall the #15 pick has had A LOT of misses or so-so at best players since 2000. If you can get into the low 20s and pick up a R3 or 2024 R2 that isn't bad.
1966-Guy
March 21, 2023 at 08:15 am
For Fields, he will most likely not be a great QB. Probably subpar at best. How do I know this? Well, let’s just look at Ohio State QB’s and go back to say 1900. Can you name a successful NFL QB from OSU?…(Crickets…waiting…) Ok, so you can’t. OSU pumps out great NFL players at all positions except QB. Why is that? My theory is OSU has such great players that it’s much easier for the QB to look good. The competition in the Big Ten is not great either. Then they go to the NFL as a high draft pick and start on a terrible team. They don’t know how to play on a terrible team and don’t know how to handle adversity. So there you have my theory.
T7Steve
March 21, 2023 at 10:19 am
Wasn't Fields a pretty good QB at Alabama too? I think he's the arm strength to be a good passer. I just think the Bears will screw him up before he gets a chance to prove it.
DoubleJ
March 21, 2023 at 11:14 am
Fields went to Georgia his freshman year (2018) and he sat behind Jake Fromm. Then he transferred to OSU and was the starter in 2019.
T7Steve
March 21, 2023 at 11:32 am
Thanks I knew it was some SCC team but thought he was replaced by Tua. Who was it that transferred after Tua replaced him in the championship?
Duhawk_47
March 21, 2023 at 04:37 pm
Jalen Hurts is the guy you're thinking of.
T7Steve
March 22, 2023 at 09:46 am
Thanks. Now I remember. I don't remember ever forgetting anything before.
DoubleJ
March 21, 2023 at 11:12 am
Joe Burrow went to OSU from 2015-2017. Granted it is sad that he couldn't beat out J.T. Barrett or Dwayne Haskins before transferring to LSU.
Leatherhead
March 21, 2023 at 01:51 pm
Dan Hanzus power rankings on the NFL Network this morning has the Vikings at #16.
If we can't contend in a division where last year's winner is AVERAGE, then we're not above average, and I think we are.