Against the Spread: Packers vs. Vikings
The Packers are favored by 9 1/2 points and the over/under is 46 1/2. So what's going to happen? We have the prediction.
Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...
(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's odds.)
Line: Packers -9 1/2
- Bet the Packers: The Packers are too good right now to let any team come close to them, let alone a team that only has one win on the season. The Packers defense, even though they've given up a ton of yards, has largely kept opponents out of the endzone and has really put the clamps on in the second half of games. They'll come through against a team with a rookie quarterback making his first career start while the Packers offense––ranked first in the NFL in scoring––continues to put points at a staggering pace.
- Bet the Vikings: Minnesota will rely on their star players. Defensive end Jared Allen, who leads the NFL with 9.5 sacks, will continue his strong play against young left tackle Marshall Newhouse, who's making only his third career start. On offense, the Vikings will ride Adrian Peterson, who will not only be effective, he'll help his team eat up the clock and keep the Packers offense off the field.
Final decision: Bet the Packers, especially if the spread stays under 10.
Last week: I picked the Packers, and they covered the -15 point spread.
Over/under: 46 1/2
- Bet the over: The Packers averaging over 32 points per game, and the way the Vikings have played this year, there's no reason not to think the Packers can't come close that that number once again. On the other side of the football, the Vikings will use Adrian Peterson to take pressure off Christian Ponder to get the chains moving. They average over 20 points per game on offense, and with the home-field advantage, the should find at least moderate success against a Packers defense that hasn't been dominant.
- Bet the under: The Packers offense, while scoring enough to win, has only put up 25 and 24 points in its past two games. Going on the road, facing a Jared Allen-led defense, they won't have an easy time on Sunday as well. Meanwhile, it's tough to imagine the Vikings offense scoring with any regularity with Christian Ponder at the helm.
Final decision: Bet the under. I've picked the Packers to go over the total the Packers couple weeks and they haven't been cooperating, and neither have their opponents.
Prediction: Packers 24 Vikings 14
Last week: I picked the over. Neither team scored in the second half, and it finished well under.
Cumulative record vs. the line: 6–6
Cumulative record straight up: 5–1




Comments (3)
October 21, 2011 at 11:21 am
interesting. i would expect the packers to load up against the run to force a rookie QB to make a play, and he won't, and packers defense will have a big with turnovers. giving A-Rod a short field is recipe for disaster for Viqueens. I think packers will win big.
October 21, 2011 at 11:58 am
During this 12 game winning streak (including playoffs) I can only think of 1 that they didn't cover (Carolina), but I could be wrong.
October 21, 2011 at 06:23 pm
I figure Ponder will have more success with his feet than with his arm. Good game to put spy on Peterson, IMO.