Against the Spread: Packers vs. Rams

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's odds.)

Line: Packers -15

• Bet the Packers: Despite last week's season-low 25-point output, the Packers still have the NFL's fourth-ranked offense putting up an average of over 420 yards per game. This week they'll not only have home-field advantage, they'll be taking on a winless Rams team that's only averaging 11.5 points per game.
• Bet the Rams: Coming off a bye week, the Rams have an extra week to prepare for the Packers, which can't hurt. Not only that, it's just possible that with three former Packers on their roster in cornerbacks Al Harris and Josh Gordy along with linebacker Brady Poppinga, they just might have a little more knowledge of the Packers offense than the typical opponent. Head coach Steve Spanuolo has had success against the Packers before, notably as the defensive coordinator of the New York Giants when they beat the Packers in the 2007 NFC Championship game and went on to win the Super Bowl.

Final decision: Bet the Packers. The Rams are having a hard time getting anything working on either offense or defense. Packers roll.

Last week: I picked the Packers, and they covered the -5 1/2-point spread.

Over/under: 47 1/2

• Bet the over: The Packers offense is prolific and they're facing a defense that's giving up an average of over 400 yards of offense and 22 first downs per game. That's a recipe for disaster and should allow the Packers to keep scoring points at an alarming pace. If there's reason to believe the Rams will turn things around, the hope lies in their skill position players, quarterback Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson who have been productive players in the past.
• Bet the under: The Packers defense finally escaped the doldrum last week against Atlanta, holding them to 14 points, and if you take away the first quarter, really shut them down. Green Bay should be able to have a similar outing against a Rams offense that just can't get things going. The Rams aren't going to shut the Packers out, but if they can just force them to kick field goals like the Atlanta did to them last week, maybe the Packers won't put up quite so much.

Final decision: Bet the over. Last week was an aberration. The Packers will get back to scoring nearly 40 points by themselves.

Prediction: Packers 42 Rams 10

Last week: I picked the over. The point total came in under as the Packers offense took until late in the game to come to life.

Cumulative record vs. the line: 5–5

Cumulative record straight up: 4–1