Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...
(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's lines.)
Line: Packers -7 1/2
- Bet the Packers: Yes, the Packers only won by three points in their first meeting with the Giants earlier this season. But that was in New York. This one is in Green Bay with a lot more at stake. Plus, fans don't have to go that far back to remember when the Packers beat the Giants 45-17 in Week 16 of the 2010 season. The playmakers from both teams aren't a lot different now compared to then.
- Bet the Giants: The Giants are on a roll. Their defensive line is obviously one of the best in the NFL. They're talented, deep and healthy. Getting a pass rush without having to blitz will only help them put more defenders in coverage against an effective Aaron Rodgers. And since getting Ahmad Bradshaw back from injury, their running game has been much more effective when he and Brandon Jacobs can share the load. Eli Manning is Eli Manning. He's not Rodgers or Drew Brees or Tom Brady, but he knows how to win.
Final decision: Bet the Giants. I'm not saying they're going to win straight up, but this team can come within a touchdown of the Packers.
Last week: I picked the Packers at +3 against the Lions in the regular season finale and covered.
Over/under: 52 1/2
- Bet the over: Aaron Rodgers is going to do what he's done all season long, direct the Packers to several scoring drives. And the Packers defense is going to do what they've done all season long as well. They're going to give up some yards and give up some points to the opposition. The Giants have enough talent at the skill position to move the ball.
- Bet the under: It's the playoffs. Push will come to shove. The Giants defense, led by their front seven will force some three-and-outs and some punts. And the Packers defense will do what they do best, get some turnovers. Several opportunities to score will be squandered by both sides.
Final decision: Bet the under. The final score isn't going to be 10-7 by any means, but the defenses on both sides will do enough to keep this game from being a scoring bonanza.
Prediction: Packers 28, Giants 24. The Packers will win, but the Giants are good enough to keep this too close for comfort. It would not surprise me in the least if the Packers needed a come-from-behind victory.
Last week: I picked the over 45, and covered as the Packers and the Lions ended up in a shoot out.
Cumulative record vs. the line: 16-16
Cumulative record straight up: 13-3
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