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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Chiefs

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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Chiefs

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's lines.)

Line: Packers -13 1/2

  • Bet the Packers: Todd Haley was fired and the Chiefs starting quarterback looks to be Kyle Orton who wasn't even with the team until a few weeks ago. That's enough to be disastrous for the Chiefs. As usual, the Packers offense should be unstoppable, even without wide receiver Greg Jennings due to injury. And even though they have their issues, the Packers defense has been better since the bye limiting the Vikings to seven points, the Lions to 15 and the Raiders to 16.
  • Bet the Chiefs: The Packers aren't quite the same team on the road they are at home. Think about the single-digit scoring differential in games at Carolina, Minnesota, San Diego and New York. Remember, we're talking about winning the bet, not the game. If the Chiefs rally around interim head coach Romeo Crennel, they can make it a competitive game and hang with the Packers long enough to cover the spread.

Final decision: Bet the Chiefs. I'd avoid this game this week, but forced to pick, I'll take the Chiefs. I've lost too many times picking the Packers on the road.

Last week: I picked the Packers, and they covered in a cake walk against the Raiders.

Over/under: 46

  • Bet the over: Chiefs cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Javier Arenas are aggressive, but at their height, they can get eaten up by taller Packers receivers like Jermichael Finley and Jordy Nelson. The Packers offense will reap the benefits. The Chiefs will benefit from a change at quarterback. Kyle Orton may not set the world on fire, but he's not Tyler Palko and that will be good enough to score on the Packers defense.
  • Bet the under: Without Matt Cassell, without Jamaal Charles, without Tony Moeaki, the Chiefs offense is without firepower. And that's a good thing for a Packers defense that is constantly in need of a confidence booster. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs pass defense is good enough to at least slow down the Packers passing attack. Tamba Hali is a good edge rusher and the secondary is aggressive. They'll force several punts.

Final decision: Bet the under. I like the Chiefs defense and don't like their offense. That might be enough to keep the game barely under the total.

Prediction: Packers 27 Chiefs 14

Last week: I picked the over, and the Packers almost covered it themselves.

Cumulative record vs. the line: 12-14

Cumulative record straight up: 12-1

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (18) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

This is a lot of points to lay, but I'm gonna do it.
Chiefs have scored 45 points total their last 6 games, solid Defense but they just can't score... One, maybe two defensive scores for the GBP this week.

34-6 Pack

Bob's picture

If you hit this score. ESPN should tell Chris Berman to take a hike.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

Bob, I don't know shit. And that's a fact!

PackersRS's picture

I just think that, this close to the postseason, the D will not come flat again. Maybe wishful thinking, though.

I'd bet Packers and under (like you said, very good D and terrible, terrible O by the Chiefs).

Otto's picture

The Chiefs have give up 34pts to NE and 37pts to the Jets (really?) in two of their last 4 games.
Also, the NFL record for points is 589. The Packers sit at 466 right now. Not that the Packers would take this into consideration, but they need to score an average of 42 points per game to set a new record.

Take the Pack + points AND the over.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

Pack minus the point perhaps?

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

Points that is.

perry's picture

i just saw this posted to the nfcn message board on espn:

Should the Packers go for 19-0?
“Aim at perfection in everything, though in most things it is unattainable. However, they who aim at it, and persevere, will come much nearer to it than those whose laziness and despondency make them give it up as unattainable.” - The 4th Earl of Chesterfield

sounds like the packers' character to me!

Ct Sharpe Cheddar's picture

Matt Flynn can lead the Pack to victories over the Forte-less Cutler-less Bears and a not used to playing in the cold Lions penalty infested team

DaveK's picture

Take the under. If it's competitive it won't be because the Chiefs are putting up points. More likely it's not competitive and Flynn is handing off on 1st and 2nd down the final two quarters. Packers 31 - 10.

Ct Sharpe Cheddar's picture

How many times has team faced a qb twice in a year that was playing for 2 different teams?

Ct Sharpe Cheddar's picture

Superbowl II rematch last week,Superbowl I this week with e same results Pack over 35 points

Bob's picture

Just read a nice article on Neal at JSonline. I have not been impressed with his play and maybe a little to critical of his production. Maybe if he stops thinking about what he has to do on each play and keeps it simple. Something like the thought for this play is I am going to destroy the man in front of me, I will show no mercy and take no prisoners, his game may get better.

O dragao da maldade contra o santo guerreiro's picture

If any of you people at the site are shareholders, I would advise you to end this feature. Seriously.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

They can pry my stock from my cold dead hands. Seriously.

And where's the proof that any of us are laying coin? This is nothing more than banter. Move along now Drago... For what it's worth, you were/are my favorite Rocky villain.

GBP 4 LIFE

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

And if you really think anybody in the front office gives two shits about anything other than their $250 a pop, I have a Sweeet 1972 beige 4 door sedan you may be interested in, really, I think you'd like it. There's no 'shareholder ethics enforcement taskforce'... Get real Joseph, It's all about the benjies.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

That should read "Broseph", damn auto correct... Ya feel me?

Ct Sharpe Cheddar's picture

How are the Chiefs going to score?Most of the teams they faced on the road can score

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