Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...
(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's lines.)
Line: Packers -13 1/2
- Bet the Packers: Todd Haley was fired and the Chiefs starting quarterback looks to be Kyle Orton who wasn't even with the team until a few weeks ago. That's enough to be disastrous for the Chiefs. As usual, the Packers offense should be unstoppable, even without wide receiver Greg Jennings due to injury. And even though they have their issues, the Packers defense has been better since the bye limiting the Vikings to seven points, the Lions to 15 and the Raiders to 16.
- Bet the Chiefs: The Packers aren't quite the same team on the road they are at home. Think about the single-digit scoring differential in games at Carolina, Minnesota, San Diego and New York. Remember, we're talking about winning the bet, not the game. If the Chiefs rally around interim head coach Romeo Crennel, they can make it a competitive game and hang with the Packers long enough to cover the spread.
Final decision: Bet the Chiefs. I'd avoid this game this week, but forced to pick, I'll take the Chiefs. I've lost too many times picking the Packers on the road.
Last week: I picked the Packers, and they covered in a cake walk against the Raiders.
- Bet the over: Chiefs cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Javier Arenas are aggressive, but at their height, they can get eaten up by taller Packers receivers like Jermichael Finley and Jordy Nelson. The Packers offense will reap the benefits. The Chiefs will benefit from a change at quarterback. Kyle Orton may not set the world on fire, but he's not Tyler Palko and that will be good enough to score on the Packers defense.
- Bet the under: Without Matt Cassell, without Jamaal Charles, without Tony Moeaki, the Chiefs offense is without firepower. And that's a good thing for a Packers defense that is constantly in need of a confidence booster. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs pass defense is good enough to at least slow down the Packers passing attack. Tamba Hali is a good edge rusher and the secondary is aggressive. They'll force several punts.
Final decision: Bet the under. I like the Chiefs defense and don't like their offense. That might be enough to keep the game barely under the total.
Prediction: Packers 27 Chiefs 14
Last week: I picked the over, and the Packers almost covered it themselves.
Cumulative record vs. the line: 12-14
Cumulative record straight up: 12-1
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