A Closer Look At The Draft

Cheesehead TV welcomes Chris Squire for a series of articles leading up to the NFL Draft at the end of April. Today, Chris takes a look at the new draft format and how that could potentially benefit the Packers.

Cheesehead TV is proud to present the first in a what we hope will be a series of draft articles from long time CHTV reader Chris Squire. Big thanks to Chris for doing this and we hope you'll let him know what you think in the comments section. Somehow we feel sure you will...

‘This is the most talented draft I’ve seen since 1983.’  A declaration recently made by Charley Casserly, current NFL Network analyst and 24-year NFL executive/GM.  This is the general sentiment floated out there by General Managers and scouting staff alike.  That draft class in particular included six future Pro Football Hall of Fame inductees.  Every round produced at least one player that was eventually elected to play in the Pro Bowl.

I agree with Casserly.  The 2010 NFL draft is loaded with legitimate starting talent.  This is not the stereotypical top-heavy draft that requires a top 15 selection to produce a future starter.  Wes Bunting of the National Football Post graded the top 100 prospects in this year’s draft class using a unique system. Basically, he anticipates at least 59 prospects will either become immediate, high-impact players in the league and/or future starters after a short period of time.  I don’t necessarily agree with the order in which he ranks the prospects but I most certainly agree that there are close to ‘50’ prospects that carry a legitimate first-round grade. However, there are only 32 selections per round.  What does it all mean?  You can find legitimate opening day talent half-way into the 2nd round. The next tier of prospects (30 deep), while not expected to become instant impact players, are talented enough to be placed in situational roles and contribute during their rookie year.

As if the draft weren’t fascinating enough for a football-starved geek such as myself, in steps Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL money machine:

We continue to look for ways to make the draft more accessible to more fans. Moving the first round to prime time on Thursday night will make the first round of the draft available to fans on what is typically the most-watched night of television.

Big event, big ratings, big money…

With the new 3-day format we now have the perfect storm for potential draft day drama, they’ve already dubbed it, the ‘Shonn Greene effect.’ Day 1 of the 2009 draft was in the books and NFL executives/coaches had 12 – 16 hours to re-evaluate and re-stack their respective draft boards.  The Jets had running back Shonn Greene as their top overall running back and traded the remainder of their picks in order to move up to pick 1 of day 2 (beginning of round 3) to make the selection.  Greene was a key contributor to the Jets playoff run and looks to have future pro-bowl potential.

Here’s the money statement:

"I think the emotion dies down and you sleep on it," Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum said Tuesday at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel. "We decided we'd make one call to Detroit because of the value he had on our board, and if the price was right, we would go ahead and do it."

Not all executives and coaches will sleep so well and/or take the emotion out of it.  Only one franchise will be able to make that first calculated, non-emotional decision.  The rest are likely to panic and will do so in three predictable areas of the 2010 NFL draft.

1) Knowing that EVERY franchise will be potentially looking to posture at the beginning of day 2 (round 2) there will be heavy activity during the latter half of round 1.  Some teams will attempt to pre-empt the round 2 activity by moving UP into the end of the 1st.  An emotional decision that teams like the Packers (pick 20 and beyond) COULD take advantage of and trade down into a talent rich 2nd round.

2) The obvious beginning of round 2, day 2 after even one team trades up almost every other franchise will begin to panic that ‘their guy’ may come off the board before their draft slot.  War-room phones will be ringing…..

3) The end of day 2, round 3.  See point #1.

This draft is an embarrassment of riches for at least the first 50 selections, but some things simply will not change.  You will see a run on left tackle and corner back prospects before their respective draft grade would dictate.  You will see desperate teams transitioning to the 3-4 defense reach for hybrid linebackers and nose tackles.  At the end of the day well-managed franchises will find value, take advantage of ‘emotional’ executives/owners (looking at you, Al Davis/Jerry Jones) and walk away from the 2010 draft with a phenomenal future.  Who knows, maybe even a future Hall of Famer…

 

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Comments (23)

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maxginsberg's picture

March 30, 2010 at 03:18 pm

Nice analysis, Chris. I think the new format favors GMs like Ted Thompson. TT sticks to his gut feelings and doesn't seem to be swayed by the popular pick. Read into that what you will, but I am glad Ted is running the show in Green Bay.

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PackerAaron's picture

March 30, 2010 at 03:26 pm

This is exactly what I was thinking as I read it as well Max.

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CSS's picture

March 30, 2010 at 03:35 pm

TT gets a ton of grief for the perception that he's, 'cold and calculating' in nature. Under the circumstances that's the exact personality I prefer when the stars align like this. Imagine being a Cincinatti Bengals fan in contrast. I've seen them referenced as 'riverboat gamblers' and it shows based on their free-agency activity and the draft.

I don't mind risk and reward, TT now has history that he will move on a guy they covet (Matthews), but I don't like excessive risk where the failure is too great (think Mike Ditka giving away an entire draft for Ricky Williams as an extreme).

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PackersRS's picture

March 30, 2010 at 04:40 pm

Interesting the take on "emotional decisions" despite GMs having one extra day to think about available prospects...

I don't necessarily think like you, Chris.

Because the draft is so deep, I believe teams will be reluctant to trade up, even with the extra day, unless a highly rated prospect falls, like the Shonn Greene example.

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CSS's picture

March 30, 2010 at 04:51 pm

Certainly not saying I'm correct on this item, but executives and coaches panic. Especially when the DB's start flying off the board.

Good example: Over half the league is now running a 3-4 defense. You can't make it work without a true 3-4 Nose Tackle prospect. You have Cam Thomas (NC) Dan Williams (Ten.) and Terrance Cody (Ala.). Williams is a one-year wonder with injury history and both Thomas and Cody are grossly overrated. 1st round defensive tackles bust more than 1st round QB's in the NFL. I wouldn't touch any of the 3 in round 1, yet they all may go in round 1. GM's and teams panic once the trades begin and you see a run on premium positions (especially left tackles and defensive backs).

I can't prove it because I'm not in a war room entertainng trades, but I can say with a fair amount of certainty that this year the 'attempt' to wheel-n-deal will be frequent.

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PackersRS's picture

March 30, 2010 at 06:54 pm

I just think that, given the depth, teams will hold onto the 2nd and 3rd round picks more than ever.

p.s.: About DTs busting, you have been to walterfootball, haven't you? ;)

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CSS's picture

March 30, 2010 at 07:07 pm

Yes, that's one of several references. I enjoy the articles, don't much like the forum.

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PackersRS's picture

March 30, 2010 at 07:37 pm

I don't go to the forums either.

I tend to agree with his view on prospects and his mock draft, to some extent.

His take on Clausen is spot on, and in McShay couldn't be funnier.

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PackersThad's picture

March 30, 2010 at 06:02 pm

I'm glad everyone has faith in TT to make the right decision, but it seems like everyone is saying that the right move is to trade down because of the quantity of talent at the top of the draft.

Please allow me to play devil's advocate for a minute: What if the best move would be to throw all your chips on the table for three or 4 picks in the top 70-85? Do you think that's a reasonable move? At where the Packers are picking, they can easily get one or even two EXTRA second round picks, and then maybe have a late 4th as their final pick. TT shocked us all with his gamble on CM3, what if he did it all again?
The reason why I think this way is because I think that TT thinks that he has a lot of depth on his team. You don't want to pick up a lot of players that you'll have to cut before the spring. Pick up 3-4 impact players and call it a day.
Does anyone see this happening (or should I apply for the Raiders GM job?)

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PackersRS's picture

March 30, 2010 at 06:58 pm

Personally, the greatest approach to this draft is to TRADE DOWN from round one, and TRADE UP to round 2-3.

I believe the strenght of this draft lies in the picks 20-90, but since we're bottom pickers, I think 5 picks between 40-90 are better than 3 picks in 20-90...

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CSS's picture

March 30, 2010 at 07:12 pm

The answer is 'it depends'. I can write a future article taking a look at prospects that could potentially slide to #23. Should the right player slide due to the right circumstances they can't trade out of the 1st round.

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CSS's picture

March 30, 2010 at 07:09 pm

You can't ever worry about 'too much depth on the team' in any one area. If a player is available that is graded highly on your draft board you take him regardless. Better competition in camp = better play and a deeper roster.

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nerdmann's picture

March 30, 2010 at 11:23 pm

We could always trade a player or two at the final cut down, a la the Giants dealing Ryan Grant a few years ago.

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aussiepacker's picture

March 30, 2010 at 09:06 pm

cool article man very informative, All the possibilities that could happen have me so excited for the draft. Cant wait and i have full trust TT will do the right thing.
P.S. I'm hopeing for jerry hughes.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

March 30, 2010 at 11:41 pm

Been scream'n for Jerry for a couple months. I watched a handful of TCU games this past year (made me a li'l $$$, thanks TCU).

I'd rather have him than Kindle, Graham, anyone. Doesn't have the ideal size, but, I just think the kid's gonna be a great pro.

GBP 4 LIFE

P.S.

You see GSP dominate Hardy? His shot CANNOT be stopped. He's the Jerry Hughes of MMA.

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aussiepacker's picture

March 31, 2010 at 11:23 am

Dude not yet but have it recorded, Waiting for a group of friends to come round this weekend with a shitload of beer and were gunna make a night out of it.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

March 31, 2010 at 10:44 pm

Sweet. Enjoy.

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PackersRS's picture

March 31, 2010 at 12:58 pm

You know I'm with you on Jerry. A BEAST!

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FITZCORE1252's picture

March 31, 2010 at 10:44 pm

I B knowin'!

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FITZCORE1252's picture

March 30, 2010 at 11:36 pm

Yeah Wes,

I'll take a #15, heavy on the PAIN!

GBP 4 LIFE

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sunflower100's picture

March 31, 2010 at 12:47 am

I think it depends on what you mean by depth. I think they have a lot of depth at the linebacker position, but they need more depth at OLB. Kampman is gone and Jeremy Thompson is recovering from an injury. I think the Packers do have some depth in the secondary if (the keyword if) a lot of the DBS stay healthy. However, I do think the Packers need to make it a priority to find a replacement for Bush, especially if there ever is anymore injuries in the secondary. Does anyone want to see Bush starting again?I think the Packers at least need some better back up safeties behind Collins/Bigby. Jarrett Bush is also a back up safety.

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sunflower100's picture

March 31, 2010 at 12:48 am

I wanted to also add the Packers have good interior oline depth, but they need some kind of back up LT to Clifton. (whether that is Lang or someone else).

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cheesecurdboy's picture

April 07, 2010 at 07:14 pm

I've been thinking about it a little bit, and the more I do the more I think Taylor Mays sounds like a good pick if a solid LT is not available. I know he had an unspectacular pro day and leaves many questions unanswered, but it seems to me that he would be a perfect fit for our defense, because we do a lot more zone, which requires more straight-line speed and harder hitting at the point of attack (which we know is his biggest strength) and less change of direction. Combine that with the fact that Dom Capers sure as hell knows what he's doing and could definitely find multiple spots and incorporate many packages for him on the defense to utilize his talents, including linebacker and other spots on the field, and a mentor in charles Woodson who already does all of that, and we could have one hell of a player on our hands in about a year, if not immediately

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