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2014 Packers Mock Draft, Final Edition, Part Deux

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2014 Packers Mock Draft, Final Edition, Part Deux

For one final time, Cheesehead TV provides a seven-round mock draft specifically for the Green Bay Packers.

Consider this the ying to Zach Kruse's yang. Whose do you like better? You won't hurt our feelings.

 

1.21 ILB RYAN SHAZIER, OHIO STATE

The Packers go with speed over power in selecting Shazier over Mosley. To be sure, Mosley is a weapon in his own right, but he doesn't have the quickness to shoot gaps, blitz and spy the quarterback or have the deep speed to run with tight ends down the seam that Shazier does. Shazier will need to be protected in order to be effective, and that will be the job of guys like B.J. Raji, Letroy Guion and Datone Jones up front. If they can free up Shazier to make plays, look out.

 

2.53 TE AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS, WASHINGTON

At 6' 5" Seferian-Jenkins becomes the tallest receiver on the Packers roster and probably signals the end of Jermichael Finley's run in Green Bay. Seferian-Jenkins takes over a similar role as a mobile tight end that can stretch the field and be a red-zone target. There are better blockers at the tight end position, but Seferian-Jenkins has the size to be an adequate blocker if he puts his mind to it. His arrest for DUI comes as a concern, but former Washington coach Steve Sarkisian speaks highly of his character and so far, it's been an isolated incident.

 

3.85 WR KEVIN NORWOOD, ALABAMA

Norwood would seem to be able to fill the shoes of James Jones rather capably. Like Jones, Norwood is a possession receiver with a knack for finding the end zone and having a rapport with his quarterback. With 4.48 speed in the 40-yard dash, he's also sneaky fast. While he played second-fiddle to Amari Cooper at Alabama, Norwood showed he can be the featured wideout at the Senior Bowl when he hauled in four passes for 53 yards and a touchdown. He's older than most rookies at 24 years old, but he's also ready to play immediately.

 

3.98 CB ANTONE EXUM, VIRGINIA TECH

Not unlike Micah Hyde a year ago, Exum feels as if he's a cornerback, but there's no shortage of observers that think he'll make a better safety, a position he played early in his career at Virginia Tech. At 6' 0" and 213 lbs., Exum definitely has the size to play safety. It was a trying senior season for the Virginia Tech product in 2013 coming off an ACL tear and then injuring his ankle after coming back, but when Exum was healthy as a junior, he was one of the best cornerbacks in the nation: 48 tackles, five interceptions, 16 pass break ups and two forced fumbles.

 

4.121 OL WESLEY JOHNSON, VANDERBILT

The ultimate jack of all trades, Johnson played tackle, guard and center in college and has the ability to play any of three in the NFL. He set a school record with 51 starts, the most in school history. And Johnson played a very high level, being named first-team All-SEC, the best conference in America, in 2013. He would provide instant competition to J.C. Tretter for the starting center position in Green Bay, and at the very least, be a versatile backup.

 

5.161 S MARQUESTON HUFF, WYOMING

The safety position is depleted in Green Bay, so the Packers take another player capable of adding depth. Another versatile defensive back, Huff played cornerback prior to switching to safety as a senior and could arguably play either position at the next level. Considered one of the best athletes to ever come out of Wyoming, Huff's 4.49 speed in the 40 showed he should be able to stay stride for stride with opposing receivers.

 

5.176 DL ANTHONY JOHNSON, LSU

Johnson was listed as being 310 lbs. as a freshman at LSU and believed to be even bigger. He weighed in at 308 lbs. at the Combine. Despite his size, Johnson still has good initial quickness that allowed him to make 22 career tackles for a loss at LSU. Nolan Nawrocki of NFL.com writes, "Character and stability need to be investigated," but if there's one place in the NFL that might bring out the best in Johnson, it could be in Green Bay where his cousin Eddie Lacy plays.

 

6.197 QB KEITH WENNING, BALL STATE

The Packers finally take their developmental fourth quarterback Mike McCarthy desires in the sixth round. The Packers should know Wenning plenty well after he made an official pre-draft visit to Green Bay. At 6' 3" and 218 lbs., Wenning has the ideal size for an NFL QB. He may have faced small-school competition in the MAC, but Wenning is as decorated as they come, holding school records for touchdowns and yards and directing 10 fourth-quarter comebacks in his career.

 

7.236 OLB KASIM EDEBALI, BOSTON COLLEGE

As a native of Germany, Edebali is still learning the game and just scratching the surface of what he could eventually become. As a senior, Edebali had the best year of his career, making 14 tackles for a loss and 8.5 sacks and should be able to build off that at the next level.

Photo: Washington tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins by Brian Carriveau.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (57) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

mneyecatcher's picture

I wouldn't mind seeing a center with one of the 3rd rounders. What are your thoughts on AJ Mccarron? Am I crazy to be coveting him too?

jmac34's picture

GB basically has McCarron in Matt Flynn so yes you are crazy

DrealynWilliams's picture

Stop it.

You're the crazy one.

Stroh's picture

There isn't that much difference between Flynn and McCarren. Both have good accuracy and intangibles, but lack arm strength. While McCarren's arm is slightly better its not that much better to make me want to draft him.

HankScorpio's picture

There are a couple of pretty big differences between Flynn & McCarron that have nothing to do with QB skills.

McCarron is 5 years younger and will be locked up for 4 years on a cheap deal. If they are the exact same player, those two things make it worth it to consider using a pick, IMO. 4 guaranteed years of a cheap deal for an acceptable backup QB sounds like a pretty good way to spend a pick to me. That 1st comp pick or later sounds about right for that.

Stroh's picture

Problem is McCarren hasn't shown he can play in the NFL. Flynn has... You never really know until he is in the NFL how he'll play. Flynn can play, especially in a backup role for another 5 yrs. If they are similar players which they are, you don't have a reason to replace they guy that's already on the roster. Flynn's not expensive in any way at about 1M per, that's a F'in bargain for peace of mind, which McCarren doesn't give since he hasn't played in the NFL.

Its not like Flynn is likely to be going anywhere, except for possibly another chance to start, which nobody thinks is going to happen!

HankScorpio's picture

That sounds like an argument to not be a draft and develop team in general.

Which is sort of a non-starter in Packerland with Ted Thompson in charge.

DrealynWilliams's picture

Soooooooo,"no" to McCarron and "yes" to a 6th or 7th rounder with bigger arm????

Help meeeeeeeeeeeee!

jmac34's picture

I think I like Zach's better. I like Mosely more for GB because I don't trust Shaziers ability to shed blocks in the NFL and I don't trust the dline to give him a clear lane to the QB. I also like the fact that Zach includes a pure safety vs a cornerback who might be able to play the position and doesn't want to play the position.

Stroh's picture

Answer me this... How many plays do you think Shazier is going to have to take on blockers? Maybe 5 or so a game? Most runs are outside not straight at him. Outside runs he runs to the ball better than any player in this draft. 2/3 of the NFL game is passing now. So out of 20 -25 runs in one game by a team, only a handful will be run up the middle where he'll have to POSSIBLY have to take on a blocker, that leaves the remaining 65 or so plays per game where he can make a distinct difference!

Are you really gonna pass on him because of the 5 or so plays a game he MIGHT have to take on a blocker, when on the other 90% of the plays he is a perfect fit and can make a HUGE difference?!

Besides which shedding blockers can be learned and improved on, whereas speed and playmaking ability can't!

zeke's picture

Good points, which is why I don't think he makes it to 21.

Evan's picture

I think it's a total toss-up, 50/50 that he'll be there.

zeke's picture

I think this is the point where someone posts that TT will trade out of the first round because he's too cheap to take Shazier. In 3... 2... 1...

Evan's picture

ha...those Cheapskate Teddy guys have been MIA lately, haven't they?

zeke's picture

Mom locked the basement door, apparently. They'll be back soon, no doubt.

Jordan's picture

The Packers have a problem in the NFC. The problem is Kaepernic and Wilson. They both like to run. And they will break your back picking up a third and long. It's part of their game plan. Kaepernic, Wilson, Seahawks and 49ers aren't going away any time soon.

The Packers have to find a way to stop them and get off the field on third down. Shazier would be the best way to stop them since they are so fast. Kaepernic and Wilson are both 4.5 guys.

If it weren't for Kaepernic and Wilson, I'd say Mosley all the way. I'm not saying Mosley is slow......but Kaepernic and Wilson are just too fast.

Maybe the Packers think they upgrade at safety to stop them. I don't know. But this draft has to address team speed on defense. Mosley will help the Packers win regular season games, but is he fast enough to keep Wilson and Kaepernic in check when the playoffs arrive? I don't think he his.

Edit: Keep in mind that Mosley's 4.63 is from his pro day. He didn't run at combine. Almost everybody runs faster at their pro day. Mosley probably would have run a a 4.68-4.70 at the combine at best. That's not slow, but Wilson and Kaepernic aren't slow either.

HankScorpio's picture

I certainly am all on board with getting more speed in the LB group for the precise reason you mention. A good, fast LB group is the best way to contain mobile QBs.

But keep in mind that 40 speed is not necessarily indicative of the speed at which a player plays. AJ Hawk ran a 4.59 (or something close). His workout numbers cemented his status as a top-10 prospect. As it turns out, he sure doesn't play that fast.

Stroh's picture

Mosley plays to his speed maybe even a bit faster. And Mosley is pretty fast, but have you watched Shazier? His closing speed is exceptional! I've been following football and the draft for going on 25-30 years and Shaziers chase and closing speed is literally the fastest I've seen.

Wilson and Kaep are only 2 of the running QB's the Packers are going to be contending with... RG3 and Cam Newton also play in the NFC. I think Shazier is might be the blueprint for not just stopping those QB's, but also the future of the ILB position, that is going to excel in coverage and make plays all over the field.

I like Mosley a lot, but Shazier More!

In regards to Hawk, his play at OSU actually matched his timed speed, it just hasn't been the case in the NFL. And he was easily a top 10 pick even before his Pro Day/Combine workout numbers. You just never know.

lukemills's picture

I'd be ecstatic if this is how it played out. Shazier, Exum and Norwood are guys that I also have jotted down for the Packers. I really like Exum. I would like to grab Derrell Johnson in the 6th.

Evan's picture

Hard to complain about Shazier and ASJ off the bat, but like most people, I'd be very concerned if they don't take a true safety until #121.

Handsback's picture

Hear that? It's the uproar from the fans when they see FS picked so late and when Exum gets injured and they say TT always picks players that have existing injuries.
Otherwise....OK.

Big Moe's picture

Out of curiosity what round would be a good place for the Pack to take Wisky's Jared Abbrederis I'm leaning toward the fifth round with the comp pick, what do you think, I haven't seen any mocks that say where he could end up and with his ability to return kicks and punts I think he'd be a great fourth receiver for the pack.

Stroh's picture

He's a terrible returner. He can catch it and gain a few yards, but he won't be a very good returner. That said, some have him higher in the 3rd, I wouldn't take him till 4th or later. He a slot WR in the NFL w/ limited upside.

COW's picture

stop with this abbrdrs dude.
and i'm a badger fan.

4thand1's picture

Is there a Badger team in Minnesota?

COW's picture

HA HA HA HA HA

JimTaylor31's picture

Abbrederis is not much of an NFL prospect IMHO. He just doesn't appear strong enough to complete with NFL DBs. I'm not so sure that Myles White isn't a better prospect. Sorry just my opinion.

HankScorpio's picture

In my mock draft simulation, Abbrederis was going in the late 3rd/early 4th area.

So the draft industrial complex seems to think he'll be gone by the time the Packers pick in round 4, much less round 5.

JimTaylor31's picture

Just for kicks who do you guys think TT will pick at #21? Not who you wish he would pick, but who do you actually think he WILL pick? I know we don't know who will be available but just take a guess. My guess:
#21 - Kyle Fuller DB

4thand1's picture

Its posted up above. Shazier. I say Mosley if he's there. Wheres that f-in dead horse, I'm gonna beat the hell outa it.

BubbaOne's picture

JT31,
It all depends how the board falls. Of the probable choices YES to Shazier, Dennard, Fuller, Beckham or Cooks.

NO to Ebron, Nix, Dix, Pryor, Amaro or Ra'Shede Houdini-man (Great and then disappears).

Leaning No on Mosley and Gilbert.

One player falls unexpectedly (like Bulaga did). Barr is reportedly falling; what if he's there at 21?

Safety options later: Bucannon, Brooks, Ladler, Vereen, Ballentine, or CB/S hybrids Jean-Baptiste, McGill, Desir, Johnson, or Carrie.

Big Moe's picture

Honestly I think TT will trade the pick and move back about five spots or so picking up an extra pick or two, and then take the most NFL ready Defensive player on their board, I think it will be Mosley, who may still be available due to the injury history.

COW's picture

Fuller (safe) or Van Noy (TT type of player).

Stroh's picture

Shazier hands down. Not just that he's who I would want, but he easily makes the most sense. He brings everything the Packers lack and he fits perfectly in the draft slot (not a reach). Really is a marriage of BPA and Need player. Just a "no brainer" IMO.

JimTaylor31's picture

Actually I'm hoping that Shazier is there at #21. I'm just having doubts that he'll be around.

HankScorpio's picture

I don't think TT will end up picking a guy that a whole bunch of mock drafters think he'll pick. That would eliminate Shazier and Mosley, who would appear to be 1a and 1b among the mock draft consensus.

TT puts a premium on guys that play in the trenches. So NT or OT would be my suspicion. The draft industrial complex says that Louis Nix is the only NT type with that kind of grade. So if I had to put money on one guy, I guess he's as good a choice as any.

Stroh's picture

I don't see DL in the 1st round. They have Daniels, Worthy, Jones and Boyd that are young players at that position, not too mention Raji back at the position he belongs in thankfully. Raji may be on a one year "prove it" contract but there's a very good chance he'll be around beyond just the one year. How many 34 DL do you carry, much less use high picks on? At MOST, you carry 7 DL (usually 6). You also have Peppers, Neal, Guion and Perry (possibly even Jolly) that will play downs at DL. They need to give those guys a chance to develop. Now IF Hageman/Tuitt/Nix fell to the 2nd round pick they would probably be too talented to pass on, but not at #21.

On the OL, Thompson has been great at finding players in the mid rounds. And they have Bulaga/Sherrod coming off injuries and need to see what they become. I think Thompson will use a 4th again on an OL, but I don't see at #21 and too be honest I don't see any OT worth the 21st pick unless one of the top 3 OT fall, which is HIGHLY unlikely.

The Packers need young playmakers behind the big guys on the DL.

HankScorpio's picture

Raji wasn't motivated in a contract year last year. Why would this year be any different?

And I can't see any logical explanation that he's a super stud on the nose and super dud anywhere else. Everybody says it but it sounds like wishful thinking to me. I hope I'm wrong about that.

Occam's Razor suggests that Raji is lazy & unmotivated. Until I see differently, NT is every bit as big of a need as ILB or Safety, in my book.

Evan's picture

I actually think occam's razor would suggest that Raji is simply a better NT than DE. That's the simplest explanation. I can't explain why either, but that's what the stats suggest.

If the answer is he's lazy and unmotivated, than how do you explain his huge 2010 season (and very good 2011 season).

I do think they could use another big boy NT, however, but probably not till later in the draft. There are a few late-round DTs who sound intriguing.

HankScorpio's picture

The explanation why he was good before and bad now is he got comfortable with his life. How big was his rookie contract? I don't know but I think it is a safe bet that he's banked $10 mil+ after taxes. Lots of guys start coasting after that sort of thing. It is human nature for a lot of people.

I would also say you're over-stating (by a lot) how well Raji performed in 2010-2011. Relative to the nothing-burger he was in 2013, maybe it is accurate to call his 2010 season "huge". But I don't grade on a curve like that.

So there are my cards for 'lazy and unmotivated'. Simple human nature.

Now, explain how a guy that gets constantly eaten alive by blockers at DE is going to reverse that when he sets up 1-2 yards closer to middle of the field. The only explanations I can dream up sound satirical.

Evan's picture

I don't think the "got comfortable with his life" argument makes sense. So, he gets drafted in 2009, pockets a ton of money and then 4 years later decides to start coasting?

Again, the simplest explanation is the position change. Whether or not it's true, I don't know. But if we're talking occam's razor, that's more logical than delving into his psychological makeup and motivation.

As for his huge 2010 season, I base that on other NTs. I know it's not all about sacks, but 6.5 from a 3-4 NT is pretty nuts (plus 39 tackles and 3 passes defended). The best NTs (Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton) don't get half that many sacks in a season. Ngata's best season is 5.5. He was a force that year.

HankScorpio's picture

You're right that he had a lot of sacks. And the huge pick 6 in the NFC CG. Big time play at a big time moment. But I remember it being flashes, not consistent. Maybe my memory is a bit off.

Either way, you're right that I hope Raji plays like that again this year. Wherever the truth lies about his play in 2010, I think that exact same thing would be a huge upgrade and a huge help to the defense overall.

We'll have to agree to disagree about the rest. And wait for the season to unfold to find out what happens next with him.

Evan's picture

But it ultimately doesn't matter.

We all agree he used to be good (or, at least, much better) and has sucked the last two seasons. No one really knows why. But we're all hoping the position change is the answer.

This season should answer that question for us.

Stroh's picture

What about playing OUT OF POSITION, don't you get? Raji was being forced to play mostly a DE position last year, not NT. Does Raji look like he's well suited to play DE to you? He looks and plays like a DAMN good NT, but as compared to the best 34 DE to play in the NFL he is NOTHING like them. NOTHING!

34 DE are 6'5ish 290 to 310... JJ Watt esque
NT are 6'2 330, WOW sounds like Raji doesn't it?!

HankScorpio's picture

"What about playing OUT OF POSITION, don't you get?"

The part I said. How moving 1-2 yards towards the center of the field will stop Raji from getting pushed around. I still don't get it. The all caps was less than helpful in explaining that.

Stroh's picture

Not getting it just speaks to you, not anyone else. If you don't think there's a dramatic difference between a 34 DE and a NT I don't know what to say for you.

I don't know anyone that doesn't think Raji was a poor idea for a 34 DE. If you don't understand the difference, there's no helping you.

HankScorpio's picture

Nice argument.

"If you don't agree with me, you're a stupid head"

Exactly what I would expect from a pom-pom waver that really doesn't have a clue how to actually defend a point. Wear the badge proudly, you earned it.

HankScorpio's picture

And really, between the two of us, you're the one showing less understanding of DE vs NT in a 3-4. NT gets more focus from the opposing offensive line than DE does. So if Raji can't defeat blocks when getting less focus, how is moving to an area of more focus going to make him more effective?

The only rational answer is it might motivate him to play harder and unleash his talent. Which has been my point all along. That the only thing hindering Raji is Raji himself. Not "playing out of position"

THEMichaelRose's picture

A few thoughts:
- I think this has it right that the Packers could wait a while before drafting a true S
- While I like Exum as a player, I'm not fond of picking more versatile dudes, we just got Hyde last year, let's pick some guys who know how to do one thing and know how to do it well
- I generally dislike the QB selections from both you and Zach. If you're going to take one that late, don't bother. Just do an UDFA, because you're not serious about having a good backup for 2015 after Flynn leaves for good. (And Tolzien is NOT an NFL QB). I know Ron Wolf used to do it, but he proved to be basically the only GMs to find value there on a relatively consistent basis.

COW's picture

i agree with all of this.

HankScorpio's picture

I went to Fanspeak's On the Clock simulator and selected all 4 available draft board to do a 7 round mock draft. I did what the Packers should do...trust the board. I only picked a guy that was a "value", ie rated higher than the pick I was making. Among those possible choices, I did pick based on the current roster and earlier picks.

Lots of RBs that I bypassed. In all 4 versions.

First the link to the simulator if someone want to try their own hand at it.
http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/

Here are the results
DraftTV Board
21. Mike Evans-WR, Texas A & M
53. Eric Ebron-TE UNC
85. Chris Smith-DE Ark
98. Ego Ferguson-DT LSU
121. Marcus Robinson-CD, Fla
161. David Fales-QB San Jose St.
176-Aaron Colvin-CB OK St
197-Russell Bodine-C UNC
236-Brock Vereen-S Minnesota

Fanspeak
21. Eric Ebron
53. Jimmie Ward, S N. Ill
85. Trent Murphy-DE Stanfor
98. Martavis Bryant, WR Clem
121. Marcus Martin, C USA
161. Walt Aikens, CB Liberty
176. L'Damian Washington, WR Missouri
197. Avery Williamson, ILB Kentucky
236. Keith Wenning, QB Ball St

Ourlads
21. Louis Nix, DT Notre Dame
53. Jimmie Ward
85. Allen Robinson, WR Penn St
98. CJ Fiedorowicz, TE Iowa
121. Seantrel Henderson, OT Miami
161. Devon Kennard, OLB USC
176. EJ Gaines, CB Missouri
197. Larry Webster, DE Bloomsburg
236. Tyler Larsen, C Utah St.

Walter
21. Justin Gilbert, CB Ok St
53. Chris Borland, ILB Wisconsin
85. Cody Latimer, WR Indiana
98. Donte Moncrief, WR Ole Miss
161. Xavier Grimble, TE USC
176. Charles Leno, OT Boise St
197. Vinnie Suneri, S Alabama
236. Max Bullough, ILB Michigan St.

Evan's picture

About 12 hours away from our pick.

In the meantime, these Clay Matthews GMC Draft Day commercials are pretty great: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG6LSH_-5nE&list=PLCK989HFlaclL8dWG6-UUA...

Evan's picture

I really haven't studied/followed the draft as closely this year as I have in years past. Not really sure why that is but as a result I don't have my heart set on any one guy.

I brought this up to Brian yesterday, but the more I think about it the more I think success in the draft is simple luck.

Sure, there are the Matt Millen's who are bad at it, but I think the vast majority of successful GMs are more lucky than skilled.

For every "safe" first-round pick who turned out to be a bust there is a late-round pick who became an all-pro. It's just a crap shoot. And the majority of picks won't amount to anything.

Still, I'm excited (hence the rambling) and can't wait to see who TT picks.

HankScorpio's picture

SI just ran an article about the Ravens where the team brass basically agrees the draft is more about luck than anything else. Their entire offseason approach is predicated on ensuring maximum picks. They plan on guys moving on every year and don't sign guys that will eat into the compensatory picks to offset those losses.

Their belief is the "draft guru" GMs are no better than most at picking players. Those guys usually make more picks and thus produce more players while still "hitting" at the same rate as everyone else.

Simple math. If everyone hits 50% (for example), the guy that makes 8 picks found 4 players while the guy that makes 12 picks found 6 of them.

Evan's picture

Thanks - I'll have to check that out.

That's very much TT's philosophy as well - get as many picks as you can get and trust your board.

I think that makes a lot of sense.

DrealynWilliams's picture

It's a chess match leaning on lots of hope + luck.

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